We The People Politics

Barack Obama has made it clear that he intends on having a full, 50 state battle for the Presidency.  Unlike previous elections where there were some states that were considered red states and there were some states that were considered blue states and then you battled in those states that you had a chance, this time, the campaign sees any state as a possibility.  Or, more importantly…They see each state as a way of forcing John McCain to spend money.

I spent some time looking at some polls and some graphs this evening and I began to realize that there was some very interesting things that were happening in the political world.  First and foremost, I realized that according to polls, every single state that John Kerry won in 2004, Barack Obama was currently leading in.  That’s great news except for one problem: John Kerry lost.  But, this is 2008, not 2004.  Different polls show something else appearing.

Six of George Bush’s states in 2004 are not in John McCain’s hands.  The states that have suddenly flip flopped from Republican to Democrat are: New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, Iowa, Indiana, and Ohio.  When looking at how many electoral votes that is, we see something that, for Democrats, is very exciting.  John Kerry won 251 electoral votes in 2004.  Add those six states and you now have 316 electoral votes for Barack Obama.  Last I checked, all you needed was 270 to win.

However, this isn’t a for certain for Barack Obama.  It’s only July 1st…The way I see it, he has quite a few more months to potentially screw up, so he needs to be careful not to get arrogant.  The interesting thing, though, is his battle strategy.  I wanted to touch on that a little bit…

According to him, he intends on campaigning in all 50 states.  That’s great, but it’s very costly.  But then I realized that his tactic was to try to outspend John McCain.  It’s going to be a tough one, though, especially since he is not taking money from special interest groups and McCain is.  The way I see his tactic working is this:

He has no intention of winning in very red states.  He knows that he cannot win in them, but is going to spend money anyways.  By doing this, John McCain will have to spend money in those states as well.  The less money that McCain has for swing states, the better the chances that Obama has to win the general election.  I see it working.  If Barack Obama can fundraise and raise enough money to fight hard in all of these states then I see him being a very formidable threat to John McCain in states that, in previous years, Republicans could take advantage of.

However, in the end, only one thing matters: who can get to 270 first.  A full, 50-state war for votes?  It’s going to be interesting.